@article {3199871, title = {Flexible Compliance: Utility and Legitimacy in Jerusalem}, journal = {Territory, Politics, Governance}, volume = {14}, year = {2026}, pages = {22-41}, abstract = {

Disadvantaged residents in contested cities often mistrust and resist official authorities due to historical deprivation. However, their urgent needs compel them to approach municipal bodies, both formally and informally, exhibiting "flexible compliance." Through interviews with Palestinians and a public opinion survey in Jerusalem, we analyzed the preferences of Jewish- Israeli and Palestinian residents for public goods provision. Results indicate that Palestinian residents prefer unofficial institutions, but this varies by location. Inner-city and outer-city East Jerusalem residents prefer the municipal government, while those beyond the separation wall favor the community councils. We elucidate flexible compliance and propose municipal tools to address it.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2024.2401434}, author = {Noam Brenner and Nufar Avni and Gillad Rosen and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {27666, title = {Identities, participation, and the immigration crisis in the city: A comparative analysis}, journal = {Cities}, volume = {166}, year = {2025}, pages = {106269}, abstract = {Can major cities accommodate the growing political polarization surrounding immigration? Attitudes of city residents toward immigrants vary widely, influenced by factors like urban diversity, labor market dynamics, and cultural identity. While some embrace immigrants as enriching urban life, others view them as threats to culture and economic stability. Using data from three original surveys from Berlin, Barcelona, and Paris (N\ =\ 1500), we explore how engagement in urban politics shapes these attitudes, considering national and non-national identities. Results indicate a correlation between political engagement and positive attitudes toward immigrants but also reveal how it can reinforce existing identity-based biases, potentially polarizing urban politics. Our comparative analysis highlights city-specific variations, with Berlin showing favorable attitudes alongside stronger polarization than Paris and Barcelona. These differences possibly stem from urban conditions, such as diversity, capital city status, and pro-immigrant policies. These findings highlight the central role of cities in shaping immigration politics{\textemdash}both as spaces that foster inclusive, a-national affiliations and as battlegrounds where national identity-driven polarization can intensify. In the conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for local governments, particularly how cities can respond to the growing political divides.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106269}, author = {Noam Brenner and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3200428, title = {What happens when forced migrants and transit state actors meet? Encounters at decision nodal points during the migration journey}, journal = {Comparative Migration Studies}, year = {2025}, author = {Moshe, Netta and Miodownik, Dan and Shenhav, Shaul} } @article {3199875, title = {Spontaneous Contact and Social Resilience Following the Eruption of Interethnic Violence in Ethnically Mixed Settings}, journal = {Conflict Resolution Quarterly}, year = {2025}, abstract = {This study examines the role of spontaneous intergroup contact in fostering social resilience in ethnically mixed urban settings, focusing on Israeli mixed cities. Based on a survey conducted in September 2021 involving 944 residents of diverse city types and a university survey of Jewish and Palestinian students, it explores the extent to which unmediated, unplanned interactions (spontaneous contact) among individuals from different ethnic and social backgrounds predicts their ability to cope with and recover from outbreaks of ethnic violence. Key findings indicate that residents of mixed cities show more favorable attitudes towards outgroup members than those in homogeneous cities, suggesting that spontaneous contact reduces prejudice. The study reveals a correlation between higher social proximity to outgroup members and lower levels of tension during periods of conflict. Unexpectedly, a decrease in social proximity among university students was observed over the course of an academic year, potentially due to the eruption of interethnic violence. However, students who experience frequent spontaneous contact displayed greater resilience, maintaining positive attitudes amidst conflict. This research underscores the significance of spontaneous contact in mixed cities and heterogeneous environments in promoting social resilience and a sense of coexistence. It suggests that everyday interactions in diverse environments are crucial for managing and mitigating the impacts of intergroup tensions and conflicts.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/crq.21490}, author = {Nitzan Faibish and Ifat Maoz and Paz Yaacov and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3199874, title = {Who will protect our human rights? Cities, states, and ethnicity}, journal = {Journal of Urban Affairs}, year = {2025}, abstract = {

The ongoing questions that ethno-nationally divided urban communities face concerning human rights are often exacerbated by large-scale events that challenge everyday local dynamics, such as wars and pandemics. This study, situated within discussions concerning the "localization" of human rights, explores what\ factors\ lead\ city-zens (citizens of the city)\ to pin expectations of safeguarding human rights on the local authority, focusing on urban identity, ethno-national identity, and the city{\textquoteright}s ethno-national heterogeneity.\ We explore Israel{\textquoteright}s homogeneous and mixed (Jewish-Palestinian) cities, wherein city-zens navigate their conflicting identities amidst eruptions of the long-standing conflict, as demonstrated by its latest escalation in October 2023. Drawing on an original survey and in-depth interviews, we find that urban identity is associated with city-zens{\textquoteright} expectations that their city will safeguard human rights, particularly among the (Jewish) majority in mixed cities. We further divide urban identity into legal and social dimensions, elucidating its role in shaping local perspectives on human rights in ethno-nationally conflicted societies.\ 

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2024.2447346}, author = {Gil Shaham-Maymon, Dan Miodownik} } @article {3199873, title = {Urban Identity VS. National Identity in the Global City: Evidence from Six European Cities}, journal = {European Journal of Political Research}, volume = {64}, year = {2025}, pages = {580-598}, abstract = {

This study explores the prioritization of urban identity over national identity in the context of the global city. Scholars have extensively discussed the fragmentation of national identity among individuals in the globalized world, and the relative proliferation of other communal identities, whether more cosmopolitan or place-based. As globalization gradually erodes the cultural distinctiveness of nation states, cities are revealed as arenas within which inhabitants nurture a particular collective character, which is used as an attractive source of local, communal belonging. Global cities, in particular, are a compelling case to inquire into the interplay between national and urban identity. Due to their relative independence vis-{\`a}-vis the state, the global city can promote the values shared by inhabitants while constituting significant competition for nation-based self-determination and providing a unique source of urban identity that is simultaneously cosmopolitan and place-based.

In this paper we ask whether city-zens living in highly globalized cities are more likely to prioritize their urban identity over their national identity. Utilizing the GaWC Index of cities{\textquoteright} globalization levels, we analyze the results of an original survey conducted among residents of six European cities: Paris, Madrid, Barcelona, Berlin, Utrecht and Glasgow. Our empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that in globalized cities a higher level of globalism accords with a more explicit tendency to prioritize urban identity over national identity. In conclusion, we interpret this evidence as an identities trade-off that challenges the coexistence of urban and national identities within globalized cities, discussing its implications for future studies of contemporary politics.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12700}, author = {Gil Shaham-Maymon and Noam Brenner and Paz Yaacov and Dan Miodownik} } @article {3199872, title = {Third Space and Spontaneous Contact in a Divided City: Evidence from Jerusalem}, journal = {Peacebuilding}, year = {2024}, abstract = {This study examines the impact of spontaneous interactions between Jewish and Palestinian students in a divided city, focusing on how these interactions influence attitudes, feelings, and perceptions. Drawing on the contact hypothesis and third-place theory, which posit that interactions in neutral spaces can reduce prejudice, we contribute to ongoing debates surrounding these theories. Our research incorporates critical perspectives, acknowledging the potential for depoliticization of space and conflict suppression in settler-colonial and divided cities. Using an online survey administered to 1,951 university students, we found that Jewish and Palestinian students who engage in spontaneous interactions with the other group during their studies exhibit more positive attitudes towards them. These findings highlight the importance of re-evaluating the concept of third places in divided cities, particularly in contexts marked by conflict and asymmetry. We conclude by offering practical recommendations based on our results.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21647259.2024.2430863}, author = {Nitzan Faibish and Noam Brenner and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3199870, title = {Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {68}, year = {2024}, pages = {1636-1670}, abstract = {

How is the electoral behavior of minorities shaped by past violence? Recent studies found that displacement increases hostility between perpetrators and displaced individuals, but there has been paltry research on members of surviving communities. We argue that the latter exhibit the opposite pattern because of their different condition. Violence will cause cross-generational vulnerability, fear and risk-aversion{\textemdash} leading the surviving communities to seek protection and avoid conflict by signalling loyalty and rejecting nationalist movements. In their situation as an excluded minority in the perpetrators{\textquoteright} state, they will be more likely to vote for out-group parties. Exploiting exogenous battlefield dynamics that created inter-regional variation in the Palestinian exodus (1947-1949), microlevel measurements that capture the damage of violence, and an original longitudinal data set, we show that Palestinian villages in Israel more severely impacted by the 1948 war have a much higher vote share to Jewish parties even seventy years later. Survey evidence further supports our theory, revealing that this pattern exists only for members of the surviving communities, and not among displaced individuals. The findings shed new light on the complex social relations that guide political decision-making in post-war settings and divided societies that suffer from protracted conflicts.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195384}, author = {Harran-Diman, Amiad and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3199869, title = {Bloody Pasts and Current Politics: The Political Legacies of Violent Resettlement}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {57}, year = {2024}, pages = {1506-1551}, abstract = {

How does living on property taken from others affect voting behavior? Recent studies argued that benefiting from historical violence leads to support for the far right. We extend this literature with new theoretical insights and data from Israel, using case-specific variation in the nature of displacement to uncover heterogeneous treatment effects. Exploiting the coercion during the settlement of Jewish migrants on rural lands following the 1948 war, we show that living on lands taken from Palestinians consistently led to hawkish right-wing voting in the following 70 years. We also show that exposure to the ruins of the displaced villages increased right-wing voting and that the impact of intergroup contact is divergent: it decreased intolerant voting in most villages but increased it among Jewish communities that reside on violently taken land. Our results are robust when matching is used to account for several controls and spatiotemporal dependencies.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140231194066}, author = {Harran-Diman, Amiad and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3199868, title = {Leadership repertoire and political engagement in a divided city: the case of East Jerusalem}, journal = {Urban Studies}, volume = {61}, year = {2024}, pages = {58-77}, abstract = {

Do the leaders of minority communities in divided cities influence group members{\textquoteright}\ expressed willingness to engage politically with rival groups? Studies typically \ link group members{\textquoteright} willingness\ to\ engage\ with rival\ groups\ to direct contact between individuals\ from opposing groups. However,\ such\ contact\ is\ problematic\ in\ divided\ cities,\ wherein opportunities\ to\ interact\ are scarce and\ frowned\ upon.\ Focusing\ on the\ contested\ urban space of\ Jerusalem,\ we find\ indications\ that the\ diverse\ nature of\ community leadership\ in East\ Jerusalem\ can\ influence Palestinian residents{\textquoteright} attitudes toward political engagement\ with Israeli\ Authorities\ via The\ {\textquoteleft}middlemen{\textquoteright}\ role can\ explain\ the\ influence\ that have in\ divided\ cities. They their\ constituents\ and the other\ group{\textquoteright}s members\ or\ institutions.\ Our\ analysis employs original\ data from a public of East\ Jerusalem\ immediately\ prior to the\ Jerusalem\ 2018 It has ramifications regarding\ urban\ governance\ for other\ divided\ cities.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980231175262}, author = {Noam Brenner and Miodownik, Dan and Shenhav, Shaul} } @article {3199867, title = {Atypical Violence and Conflict Dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, volume = {12}, year = {2024}, pages = {399-406}, abstract = {

What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Furrier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of two other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable effect that altered the broader conflict dynamics, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and present a set of tools for conducting such analysis.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.39}, author = {Chagai Weiss and Tsur, Neal and Miodownik, Dan and Lupu, Yonatan and Finkel, Evgeny} } @article {3199866, title = {Social navigation of asylum seekers: Journeying through host/transit countries amid changing political conditions}, journal = {Journal of Immigrant \& Refugee Studies}, volume = {22}, year = {2024}, pages = {714-726}, abstract = {This study explores one of the least studied components of forced migrants{\textquoteright} journeys{\textemdash}the internal political conditions of the host/transit countries. Using the social navigation approach, we demonstrate how these conditions influence the progress or halt of migration journeys of asylum seekers. We interviewed asylum seekers from Eritrea and Sudan about their journey from their country of origin. Based on these life stories, we derived three salient political themes affecting their journeys: state political instability, the state of freedoms, and lasting persecution. We conclude with insights into the influence of the political component along the journey.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2022.2106004}, author = {Moshe, Netta and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {3199865, title = {Social Cohesion and Violence: Explaining Riots in East Jerusalem}, journal = {Studies in Conflict \& Terrorism}, volume = {47}, year = {2024}, pages = {1772-1799}, abstract = {

Does social cohesion explain variation in violence within divided cities? In line with\ insights drawn\ from the ethnic politics, criminology and urban geography literature we\ suggest that explaining variation in inter-group violence is not possible by relying on\ motivational elements alone, and attention to social cohesion is required as well. While\ cohesion can facilitate collective action that aids\ violent mobilization, it can also\ strengthen social order that contributes to the group{\textquoteright}s capability to control and prevent\ unrest. We test these relationships using an application of a latent variable model to an\ integration of crime data, survey results and expert-coded data in order to measure\ cohesion in East Jerusalem neighborhoods. We then analyze its impact on riots using\ three original geo-located datasets recording violence in the neighborhoods between\ the years 2013-2015. Our results reveal that even with controls for economic and\ political\ determinants of violence, as well as for spatial clustering and temporal\ explanations, neighborhood-level social cohesion is a robust explanatory variable - it\ negatively correlates with riots.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2022.2074394}, author = {Harran-Diman, Amiad and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {26935, title = {Leadership development in divided cities: The Homecomer, Middleman, and Pathfinder}, journal = {Journal of Urban Affairs}, volume = {45}, year = {2023}, pages = {1824-1840}, abstract = {Group leaders play a vital role in divided cities, particularly in local problem-solving and in everyday contestations. Their role as negotiators makes them perfectly positioned to promote urban processes for the group to which they belong but also raises questions regarding their loyalty. Seeking to understand these individuals{\textquoteright} thinking, this study asks how leaders from different groups in a divided city explain their development as leaders. Utilizing a life-story approach, we present a narrative analysis of 40 life-stories, as told by local leaders representing the main social groups in Jerusalem. Our findings suggest that leaders from different groups use distinctive narratives to ensure their relevancy: {\textquotedblleft}The Homecomer,{\textquotedblright} used by Israeli-Jews; {\textquotedblleft}The Middleman,{\textquotedblright} used by Palestinian-Arabs; and {\textquotedblleft}The Pathfinder,{\textquotedblright} used by Israeli Ultraorthodox-Jews. More importantly, we found that all these leaders share a similar mind-set, what we call\ leadership development as discovery. Indeed, their development includes formative events that differentiate them from their community, helping them to see the divided city from a different perspective and positioning them as leaders. Understanding and acknowledging this spatial aspect in their narratives can be a first step in facilitating group collaborations, empowering local leaders, and even leading to the emergence of new ones. Our implications go beyond divided cities and can be further studied in ordinary cities.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2021.2016427}, author = {Noam Brenner and Miodownik, Dan and Shenhav, Shaul} } @article {26976, title = {Seeing peace like a city: local visions and diplomatic proposals for future solutions}, journal = {Peacebuilding}, year = {2023}, abstract = {\ Violently contested cities are at the heart of ongoing ethnonational conflicts, and their\ final status is often a central issue for peace negotiations, without which no\ final resolution can be reached. These negotiations, typically led by national politicians and diplo- mats, include little, if any, representation of local actors and voices. These voices are often fundamentally different from those of state- centric actors, and they may bring to the table different ideas, values, and perspectives concerning the future of contested cities. This article integrates the\ seeing like a city\ theoretical approach with the growing literature on urban peacebuilding and asks: How is\ seeing peace like a city\ different from\ seeing peace like a state?\ and whether the visions of local pro-peace grassroots leaders are com- plementary or contradictory to the models that national decision- makers propose for cities. We analyse the case study of Jerusalem using historical analysis, public opinion surveys, and in-depth inter- views to illustrate the tension between state-centric and city-centric logics. Our\ findings show the distinction between the focus of state-centric processes on\ {\textquoteleft}rigid{\textquoteright}\ issues (e.g. security and sover- eignty) and the focus of city-centric processes on\ {\textquoteleft}soft{\textquoteright}\ issues (e.g. tolerance and daily life). We conclude the paper with an explication of the implications of our framework,\ seeing peace like a city\ for research and practice in other violently contested societies.\ }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21647259.2023.2219130}, author = {Lior Lehrs and Noam Brenner and Nufar Avni and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {26934, title = {Spontaneous Contact and Intergroup Attitudesin Asymmetric Protracted Ethno- National Conflict: East Jerusalem Palestinian Students in an Israeli Academic Setting}, journal = {Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology}, year = {2023}, abstract = {\ In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of East Jerusalem Palestinian students studying at Israeli higher education institutions in Israel and in pre- academic preparatory programs. This study examines how spontaneousencounters with Jewish students while attending an Israeli academic institution are associated with young East Jerusalem Palestinian students{\textquoteright} attitudes toward the integration of East Jerusalem Palestinians into the city of Jerusalem and cooperation with Israeli Jews. We analyze the responses to an online survey of 106 East Jerusalem Palestinian students attending a one-year preparatory program at an Israeli academic institute. We find that Palestinian students who report spontaneous contact with Jewish students on campus during the year express more favorable attitudes toward the integration of East Jerusalem Palestinians into the city of Jerusalem and more positive attitudes toward Jewish Israelis in general.\ }, url = {https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/pac0000683}, author = {Nitzan Faibish and Noorman Rajabi and Miodownik, Dan and Ifat Maoz} } @article {27004, title = {Two Jerusalems: Between East and West, Past and Future}, journal = {Politika: The Israeli Journal of Political Science and International Relations (In Hebrew)}, year = {2023}, abstract = {\ This special issue\ of "Politika: The Israeli Journal of Political Science and International Relations"\ presents a comprehensive exploration of the multifaceted dynamics of Jerusalem. The articles in this collection examine Jerusalem{\textquoteright}s historical significance, cultural heritage, and the interplay between its diverse communities. They delve into the spatial dynamics of the city, including urban planning challenges, territorial contestations, and the impacts of demographic shifts. Additionally, the political dimensions of Jerusalem are analyzed, including the role of international actors, negotiations, and the implications of competing national aspirations.\ Through interdisciplinary lenses, these articles provide fresh insights into Jerusalem{\textquoteright}s intricate tapestry, challenging prevailing assumptions and offering new perspectives on the city{\textquoteright}s past and present. By examining Jerusalem{\textquoteright}s historical evolution and contemporary challenges, this special issue aims to enrich the understanding of this unique city and contribute to ongoing scholarly debates.\ }, url = {https://politika.huji.ac.il/גיליון/גיליון-33}, editor = {Dan Miodownik, Gillad Rosen} } @article {25316, title = {Limited Urban Citizenship: The Case of Community Councils in East Jerusalem}, journal = {Urban Geography}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, year = {2022}, month = {2022}, pages = {546-566}, abstract = {\ All around the world, urban spaces are disputed over issues of class, gender, ethnicity, and race. Urban citizenship within such spaces has been found to be fragmented, or even {\textquoteleft}dark.{\textquoteright} Intermediary organizations that represent spatially concentrated communities, such as Community Councils (CCs), often operate under these contentious circumstances. This paper focuses on the role of intermediary institutions in the contested city of (East) Jerusalem. We situate this case in the discussion on urban citizenship and highlight the precarity of the concept in a non-democratic context where most people are stateless residents. Building on in-depth interviews and site visits, we suggest that CCs implement a limited form of urban citizenship via a range of functions that vary from service provision to political representation. We explain the multifaceted nature of this limited urban citizenship and the process by which it is created, as well as its strengths and weaknesses. Through this case, we seek to enrich the literature on urban citizenship and CCs in contested cities with an emphasis on the multiple logics that operate in space, including the urban and the national.\ }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2021.1878430}, author = {Nufar Avni and Noam Brenner and Miodownik, Dan and Gillad Rosen} } @article {26536, title = {What Happens to Peace When the Process is Stalled: Competing International Approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict}, journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, year = {2022}, month = {2022}, abstract = {\ Does an ongoing stalemate in a peace process affect the international agenda toward the conflict and international perceptions about policies that should be adopted to resolve it? We provide a tentative answer to this question by drawing insight from analysis of developments and trends in international media attention to key terms and concepts in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during cycles of violence, as well as periods of rapprochement and peace negotiations, in the last two and half decades (1996-2021). We find that although attention to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process have been declining over the years, much of the international discussion continues to be devoted to relaunching a negotiation process leading to a two state solution. The ongoing stalemate in such {\textquotedblleft}process,{\textquotedblright} we show, provide ample opportunities for alternative approaches to emerge advocating alternative endgames (e.g. one-state), international pressure (e.g. BDS), or unilateral steps (e.g. annexation). Each of this approaches promotes an alternative vision and provides a different path, employs its own terminology and vision of the future. The Israeli-Palestinian case study helps illustrate what may happen to peace when the process is stalled, and how a stalemate can produce change in the international debate on the conflict and push for the emergence of new policy directions and agendas.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogac008}, author = {Lior Lehrs and Dror K. Markus and Miodownik, Dan and Sheafer, Tamir and Shaul R. Shenhav} } @article {23557, title = {Military Autonomy and Balancing in Political Crises: Lessons from the Middle East}, journal = {Armed Forces \& Society}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, year = {2021}, month = {(Online July 17)}, pages = {126{\textendash}147}, abstract = {\ This paper argues that autonomous militaries can play a balancing role during major internal political crises. However, when militaries{\textquoteright} autonomy is curtailed by political leaders before the crisis, militaries cannot maintain the political balance between rulers and opponents, thereby increasing the risk of armed conflict. The\ paper first\ explains the main concepts relevant to the discussion (autonomy; political crisis; balancing role), exploring their possible inter-linkages and presenting several hypotheses. Subsequently, it discusses four relevant cases from the Middle East before and during the Arab revolts of 2010{\textendash}2011: Egypt in 2011 and Lebanon in 1958, which demonstrate the balancing capacities of autonomous militaries during major political crises, and Lebanon in 1975 and Syria in 2011, which reveal that non-autonomous militaries cannot play a balancing role in such circumstances. The paper concludes with several observations regarding the military{\textquoteright}s balancing role during major internal political crises in divided and homogenous states.\ \ }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177\%2F0095327X19861738}, author = {Barak, Oren and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {23463, title = {When Do Institutions Suddenly Collapse? Zones of Knowledge and the Likelihood of Political Cascades}, journal = {Quality \& Quantity}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, year = {2020}, month = {16 May, 2019}, pages = {413-437}, abstract = {In this paper institutions are treated as stabilized sets of expectations, an approach that encourages investigation of how cultural formations, political regimes, global financial arrangements, and other institutions can be both reliable and yet also subject to sudden and sometimes catastrophic transformations. We examine conditions that make political cascades, or tipping, more or less likely. We report findings from computer-assisted agent-based modelling experiments designed to test Timur Kuran{\textquoteright}s preference falsification model for explaining the possibility, but rare occurrence of, revolutionary political cascades. Since it run on a computer, our operationalized model of Kuran{\textquoteright}s theory is is a necessarily precise and elaborated refinement of the incompletely specified version presented by Kuran.\ \ Our purpose is to go beyond his explanation for why political cascades can occur, albeit rarely, to explore the conditions that make them more or less likely.\ \ Our specific focus is on the impact of the amount of knowledge about the state of the entire system possessed by citizens with stronger or weaker inclinations to publicly express their anti-regime sentiments.\ The {\textquotedblleft}zone of knowledge{\textquotedblright} of individuals is an unexamined variable whose importance is unrecognized but implied by Kuran{\textquoteright}s analysis.\ \ . We find that with some reasonable but crucial refinements Kuran{\textquoteright}s preference falsification theory works to explain the pattern observed in the political world of rare but sweeping cascades of; that the amount of knowledge individuals have about the behavior of the population is crucial to shaping the probability of a cascade; and that variation in the myopia of {\textquotedblleft}early followers{\textquotedblright} is considerably more important for determining the likelihood and comprehensiveness of sudden political transformations\ \ than the influence of first movers or the contribution of other plausible factors.\ }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00883-9}, author = {Ian S. Lustick and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {22541, title = {Geographies of violence in Jerusalem: The spatial logic of urban intergroup conflict}, journal = {Political Geography}, volume = {66}, year = {2018}, pages = {88-97}, abstract = {This paper assesses how spatial configurations shape and transform individual and collective forms of urban violence, suggesting that geographies of urban violence should be understood as an issue of mobility. We document and map violent events in Jerusalem, assessing the possible impact of street patterns: segmenting populations, linking populations, and creating spaces for conflict between the city{\textquoteright}s Jewish and Palestinian populations. Using space syntax network analysis, we demonstrate that, in the case of Jerusalem, street connectivity is positively associated with individual violence yet negatively associated with collective violence. Our findings suggest that understanding the logic of urban intergroup violence requires us to pay close attention to local urban morphology and its impact on intergroup relations in ethnically divided and heterogeneous environments.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.08.008}, author = {Jonathan Rokem and Chagai M. Weiss and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {23927, title = {Determinants of Regional Political Distinctiveness}, journal = {Nationalism and Ethnic Politics}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, year = {2016}, pages = {119-148}, abstract = {Scholarly research exploring the phenomenon of regional distinctiveness in Europe, since at least the 1960s, has generated a variety of competing theories to explain the phenomenon, including the following: the persistence of linguistic distinctiveness; the impact of economic distinctiveness; and remoteness. Often these studies operationalize {\textquotedblleft}regional distinctiveness{\textquotedblright} in different ways, impeding the evaluation of different types of theories against one another. This study develops a novel measure for regional distinctiveness, applied to 161 regions in 11 European countries from 1990{\textendash}2014, and demonstrates that language, economics, and remoteness work through regional parties to generate regional political distinctiveness, while only linguistic distinctiveness also has a direct effect on such distinctiveness.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13537113.2016.1169057}, author = {Cartrite, Britt and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {20412, title = {The Imperative to Explore the Impact of Disarmament on Peacemaking Efforts and Conflict Recurrence}, journal = {Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, year = {2016}, pages = {347-356}, abstract = {There is today a well-established consensus that belligerents must be disarmed in order to reconstruct shattered states and establish a robust and durable peace in the wake of internal armed conflict. Indeed, nearly every UN peacekeeping intervention since the end of the Cold War has included disarmament provisions in its mandate. Disarmament is guided by the arrestingly simple premise that weapons cause conflict and, therefore, must be eradicated for a civil conflict to end. If the means by which combatants fight are eliminated, it is thought, actors will have little choice but to commit to peace. Disarmament is, therefore, considered a necessary condition for establishing the lasting conditions for peace. To date, however, no systematic quantitative analysis has been undertaken of the practice of disarmament and the causal mechanisms remain underspecified. This paper is a preliminary attempt to fill that gap. In it we outline a series of hypotheses with which to run future statistical analyses on the effects of disarmament programs. The success of negotiations and the durability of peace are, perhaps, the single most salient issues concerning those engaged in conflict termination efforts. We therefore focus the bulk of this paper on a review of the supposed effects of disarmament on negotiating outcomes and war recurrence.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2016-0032}, author = {Levine, Jamie and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {20411, title = {The Legitimacy of Alien Rulers}, journal = {Swiss Political Science Review}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, year = {2016}, pages = {454-469}, abstract = {In the modern world, alien rulers are generally perceived to lack legitimacy. Political legitimacy is important because it is thought to be the principal alternative to coercive institutions. Little empirical evidence supports these claims, however. We devise a laboratory experiment that isolates alienness from other ruler characteristics. The experiment tests whether alien rulers have less legitimacy than native rulers, and whether the ability to punish compensates for this disadvantage. Using American and Israeli college student samples, we find that alien rulers receive less compliance than native rulers, and that the ability to punish does not allow alien rulers to "catch-up" with native rulers.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12221}, author = {Horne, Christine and Ben-Nun Bloom, Pazit and Irwin, Kyle and Miodownik, Dan and Hechter, Michael} } @article {doi:10.1080/1057610X.2015.1084162, title = {Receptivity to Violence in Ethnically Divided Societies: A Micro-Level Mechanism of Perceived Horizontal Inequalities}, journal = {Studies in Conflict \& Terrorism}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {22-45}, abstract = {Although past scholarship shows that group inequalities in economic and political power ({\textquotedblleft}Horizontal Inequalities{\textquotedblright}) correlate with dissent, violence, and civil wars, there is no direct empirical test of the perceptual explanation for this relationship at the individual level. Such explanation is vital to understanding how integration, inclusion in power-sharing agreements, and exclusion from political power filter down to mass publics. Moreover, subjective perceptions of group conditions do not always correspond to objective group realities. We hypothesize subjective perceptions attenuate the effect of objective exclusion on support for violence in ethnically divided societies. Cross-national comparative multilevel analyses of the 2005/6 Afrobarometer dataset (N = 19,278) confirm that subjective perceptions both amplify the effect of exclusion on acceptance of violence and alter the readiness of included groups to dissent. These findings carry implications for research, state-building, and conflict management.}, doi = {10.1080/1057610X.2015.1084162}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1084162}, author = {Miodownik, Dan and Nir, Lilach} } @article {Yair15092014, title = {Youth bulge and civil war: Why a country\’s share of young adults explains only non-ethnic wars}, journal = {Conflict Management \& Peace Science}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {25-44}, abstract = {\ Scholars agree that young men carry out most acts of political violence. Still, there is no consensus on the link between relatively large youth cohorts and the onset of violent, armed intra-state conflicts. In this paper, we examine the effect of youth bulge, a measure of the relative abundance of youth in a country, on the onset of two different types of civil wars{\textemdash}ethnic and non-ethnic wars. Building on and extending three datasets used by other scholars, we theoretically argue and empirically substantiate that, as a result of the negative effects of youth bulge on the economic conditions of the youth cohorts in the country, youth bulge affects the onset of non-ethnic wars, but not the onset of ethnic wars. Possible implications and directions for further research are then suggested.}, doi = {10.1177/0738894214544613}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177\%2F0738894214544613}, author = {Yair, Omer and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {INO:9796003, title = {The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes Toward War and Peace Among Israeli Ex-Combatants}, journal = {International Organization}, volume = {69}, number = {4}, year = {2015}, note = {2016 NEPS Medal for best article in Peace Science\ }, month = {6}, pages = {981-1009}, abstract = {\ Recent research has highlighted combat{\textquoteright}s positive effects for political behavior, but it is unclear whether they extend to attitudes toward the conflict itself. We exploit the assignment of health rankings determining combat eligibility in the \ Israel Defense Forces to examine the effect of combat exposure on support for peaceful conflict resolution. Given the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to global affairs, and its apparent intractability, the political consequences of combat become all the more pressing. We find that exposure to combat hardens attitudes toward the rival and reduces support for negotiation and compromise. Importantly, these attitudes translate into voting behavior: combatants are likely to vote for more hawkish parties. These findings call for caution in emphasizing the benign effects of combat and underscore the importance of reintegrating combatants during the transition from conflict to peace.}, issn = {1531-5088}, doi = {10.1017/S002081831500020X}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081831500020X}, author = {Grossman,Guy and Manekin,Devorah and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000329361300016, title = {Group Segregation and Urban Violence}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, volume = {58}, year = {2014}, note = {American Journal of Political Science Best Article Award (2014)\ }, month = {JAN}, pages = {226-245}, abstract = {\ How does segregation shape intergroup violence in contested urban spaces? Should nominal rivals be kept separate or instead more closely integrated? We develop an empirically grounded agent-based model to understand the sources and patterns of violence in urban areas, employing Jerusalem as a demonstration case and seeding our model with microlevel, geocoded data on settlement patterns. An optimal set of parameters is selected to best fit the observed spatial distribution of violence in the city, with the calibrated model used to assess how different levels of segregation, reflecting various proposed virtual futures for Jerusalem, would shape violence. Our results suggest that besides spatial proximity, social distance is key to explaining conflict over urban areas: arrangements conducive to reducing the extent of intergroup interactionsincluding localized segregation, limits on mobility and migration, partition, and differentiation of political authoritycan be expected to dampen violence, although their effect depends decisively on social distance.}, issn = {0092-5853}, doi = {10.1111/ajps.12045}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12045}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Donnay, Karsten and Miodownik, Dan and Mor, Maayan and HELBING, DIRK} } @book {3433, title = {Nonstate Actors in Intrastate Conflicts}, year = {2013}, pages = {256}, publisher = {University of Pennsylvania Press}, organization = {University of Pennsylvania Press}, address = {Philadelphia}, abstract = {Intrastate conflicts, such as civil wars and ethnic confrontations, are the predominant form of organized violence in the world today. But internal strife can destabilize entire regions, drawing in people living beyond state borders-particularly those who share ideology, ethnicity, or kinship with one of the groups involved. These nonstate actors may not take part in formal armies or political parties, but they can play a significant role in the conflict. For example, when foreign volunteers forge alliances with domestic groups, they tend to attract other foreign interventions and may incite the state to centralize its power. Diasporan populations, depending on their connection to their homeland, might engage politically with financial support or overt aggression, either exacerbating or mitigating the conflict. Nonstate Actors in Intrastate Conflicts takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the ways external individuals and groups become entangled with volatile states and how they influence the outcome of hostilities within a country{\textquoteright}s borders. Editors Dan Miodownik and Oren Barak bring together top scholars to examine case studies in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Israel/Palestine, and Turkey and explore the manifold roles of external nonstate actors. By shedding light on these overlooked participants whose causes and consequences can turn the tide of war, Nonstate Actors in Intrastate Conflicts provides a critical new perspective on the development and neutralization of civil war and ethnic violence. Contributors: Oren Barak, Chanan Cohen, Robert A. Fitchette, Orit Gazit, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Nava L{\"o}wenheim, David Malet, Dan Miodownik, Maayan Mor, Avraham Sela, Gabriel (Gabi) Sheffer, Omer Yair.}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt4cgh9b}, editor = {Miodownik, Dan and Barak, Oren} } @article { ISI:000296964000002, title = {Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset How Identity Salience, Fiscal Policy, and Natural Resource Profiles Moderate Outcomes}, journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, volume = {28}, year = {2011}, month = {NOV}, pages = {438-458}, abstract = {\ Using an agent-based computational framework designed to explore the incidence of conflict between two nominally rival ethnic groups, we demonstrate that the impact of ethnic minority rule on civil war onset could be more nuanced than posited in the literature. By testing the effects of three key moderating variables on ethnic minority rule, our analysis demonstrates that: (i) when ethnicity is assumed to be salient for all individuals, conflict onset increases with size of the minority in power, although when salience is permitted to vary, onset decreases as minority and majority approach parity; (ii) fiscal policy-the spending and investment decisions of the minority EGIP-moderates conflict; conflict decreases when leaders make sound decisions, increases under corrupt regimes, and peaks under ethno-nationalist regimes that place a premium on territorial conquest; and lastly (iii) natural resources-their type and distribution-affect the level of conflict which is lowest in agrarian economies, higher in the presence of lootable resources, and still higher when lootable resource are {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}diffuse{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}. Our analysis generates a set of propositions to be tested empirically, subject to data availability.}, issn = {0738-8942}, doi = {10.1177/0738894211418426}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235758557_Ethnic_Minority_Rule_and_Civil_War_Onset_How_Identity_Salience_Fiscal_Policy_and_Natural_Resource_Profiles_Moderate_Outcomes}, author = {Miodownik, Dan and Bhavnani, Ravi} } @inbook {Bhavnani2011105, title = {Macro- and micro-level theories of violence in ethnic and non-ethnic civil wars}, booktitle = {War: An Introduction to Theories and Research on Collective Violence}, year = {2011}, note = {cited By 0}, pages = {105-118}, abstract = {In examining both macro- and micro-level approaches to the study of civil war, this chapter considers scholarship in each of these traditions that either regards or disregards ethnicity as an essential explanation for violence. Given the voluminous literature on the subject, a select set of theories is reviewed: opportunity-based aggregate level arguments which address the causes of violence in non-ethnic civil wars; cross-national studies that evaluate the role of ethnicity using measures of fractionalization and polarization, as well as more recent configurational approaches that explicitly account for power differentials among politically relevant ethnic groups; micro-level approaches that analyze the dynamics of rebel recruitment, retention, and support, as well as the role that information, monitoring, and control play in the selective targeting of civilians; and disaggregated theories that explore the endogenous relationship between violence, ethnicity, and individual behavior. The chapter concludes with a brief review of existing macro-level datasets, as well as more recent efforts to build micro-level datasets that hold promise for bridging the macro-micro divide. {\textcopyright} 2011 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235758734_Macro-_and_Micro-Level_Theories_of_Violence_in_Ethnic_and_Non-Ethnic_Civil_Wars}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000286722000006, title = {Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {55}, year = {2011}, month = {FEB}, pages = {133-158}, abstract = {\ This article extends the formal logic of Stathis Kalyvas{\textquoteright} theory of selective violence to account for three political actors with asymmetric capabilities. In contrast to Kalyvas{\textquoteright} theory, the authors{\textquoteright} computer simulation suggests that (1) selective violence by the stronger actor will be concentrated in areas where weaker actors exercise control; (2) the relative level of selective violence used by weaker actors will be lower because of a reduced capacity to induce civilian collaboration; and (3) areas of parity among the three actors will exhibit low levels of selective violence perpetrated primarily by the strongest actor. Results from a logistic regression, using empirical data on Israel and two rival Palestinian factions from 2006 to 2008, are consistent with these predictions: Israel was more likely to use selective violence in areas largely controlled by Palestinian factions; zones of incomplete Israeli control were not prone to selective violence; and zones of mixed control witnessed moderate levels of selective violence, mainly by Israel. Nonetheless, Palestinian violence remained consistent with Kalyvas{\textquoteright} predictions.}, issn = {0022-0027}, doi = {10.1177/0022002710383663}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227574311_Three_Two_Tango_Territorial_Control_and_Selective_Violence_in_Israel_the_West_Bank_and_Gaza}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan and Choi, Hyun Jin} } @article { ISI:000295557100004, title = {Violence and Control in Civil Conflict Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza}, journal = {Comparative Politics}, volume = {44}, year = {2011}, month = {OCT}, pages = {61+}, abstract = {\ What explains the use of selective and indiscriminate violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza from 1987 to 2005? Using micro-level data, an aggregated analysis indicates that areas of dominant but incomplete territorial control consistently experience more frequent and intense episodes of selective violence, providing support for Stathis Kalyvas{\textquoteright}s theory on the logic of civil violence. Disaggregating the analysis by each zone of control and perpetrator, however, offers only mixed empirical support for Kalyvas{\textquoteright}s predictions. While Palestinian-perpetrated violence is still consistent with theoretical expectations, Israel more frequently resorts to the use of selective violence where Palestinians exercise greater control. Such disconfirming evidence points to causal mechanisms previously unaccounted for and contributes to a more nuanced specification of the microfoundations of violence in civil conflict.}, issn = {0010-4159}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235758668_Violence_and_Control_in_Civil_Conflict_Israel_the_West_Bank_and_Gaza}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan and Choi, Hyun Fin} } @article { ISI:000279344500001, title = {Between Replication and Docking: {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions\&$\#$39;\&$\#$39; Revisited}, journal = {JASSS-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {13}, year = {2010}, month = {JUN}, abstract = {\ This article has two primary objectives: (i) to replicate an agent-based model of social interaction by Bhavnani (2003), in which the author explicitly specifies mechanisms underpinning Robert Putnam{\textquoteright}s (1993) work on Civic Traditions in Modern Italy, bridging the gap between the study{\textquoteright}s historical starting point-political regimes that characterized 14th Century Italy-and contemporary levels of social capitaloreflected in a {\textquoteleft}civic{\textquoteright} North and an {\textquoteleft}un-civic{\textquoteright} South; and (ii) to extend the original analysis, using a landscape of Italy that accounts for population density. The replication exercise is performed by different authors using an entirely distinct ABM toolkit (PS-I) with its own rule set governing agent-interaction and cultural change. The extension, which more closely approximates a docking exercise, utilizes equal area cartograms otherwise known as density-equalizing maps (Gastner and Newman 2004) to resize the territory according to 1993 population estimates. Our results indicate that: (i) using the criterion of distributional equivalence, we experience mixed success in replicating the original model given our inability to restrict the selection of partners to {\textquoteleft}eligible{\textquoteright} neighbors and limit the number of agent interactions in a timestep; (ii) increasing the number of agents and introducing more realistic population distributions in our extension of the replication model increases distributional equivalence; (iii) using the weaker criteria of relational alignment, both the replication model and its extension capture the basic relationship between institutional effectiveness and civic change, the effect of open boundaries, historical shocks, and path dependence; and (iv) that replication and docking may be usefully combined in model-to-model analysis, with an eye towards verification, reimplementation, and alignment.}, issn = {1460-7425}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46486676_Between_Replication_and_Docking_Adaptive_Agents_Political_Institutions_and_Civic_Traditions_Revisited}, author = {Miodownik, Dan and Cartrite, Britt and Bhavnani, Ravi} } @article { ISI:000284842600003, title = {Does Political Decentralization Exacerbate or Ameliorate Ethnopolitical Mobilization? A Test of Contesting Propositions}, journal = {Political Research Quarterly}, volume = {63}, year = {2010}, month = {DEC}, pages = {731-746}, abstract = {\ This article presents the results of an experiment that attempted the reconciliation of opposite expectations regarding the effectiveness of political decentralization on ethno-political mobilization. An agent-based model was run thousands of times to explore the effect of decentralization. The experiments suggest that the impact is nonlinear: weak and medium levels of decentralization increase the likelihood of ethno-political mobilization, while strong decentralization decreases it. The explanation derives from how minority control of political institutions affects the dynamic of minority identity ascription and the realization of the goal or the frustration of ethnic members seeking more complete political dominance of the regional ideational space.}, issn = {1065-9129}, doi = {10.1177/1065912909338462}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235783182_Does_Political_Decentralization_Exacerbate_or_Ameliorate_Ethnopolitical_Mobilization_A_Test_of_Contesting_Propositions}, author = {Miodownik, Dan and Cartrite, Britt} } @inbook {Bhavnani2010205, title = {Groups and violence}, booktitle = {Estimating Impact: A Handbook of Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, Social, Political and Security Effects in International Interventions}, year = {2010}, note = {cited By 0}, pages = {205-237}, abstract = {\ Violence can take place along a multitude of cleavages, e.g., (1) between political groups like the Kach Movement, pitting West Bank settlers against Israeli governments supporting the land-for-peace agenda; (2) between religious groups, such as Christians and Muslims in the Nigerian cities of Jos and Kaduna; (3) along class lines, as in India between Dalits and members of the Brahminical upper castes, upwardly mobile intermediate castes, and even other backward castes such as the Thevars; and (4) between ethnic groups such as the Hutu and Tutsi, both within and across state boundaries in Rwanda and neighboring Burundi. {\textcopyright} 2010 Springer Science + Business Media, LLC.}, doi = {10.1007/978-1-4419-6235-5_7}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226642643_Groups_and_Violence}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan and Riolo, Rick} } @article { ISI:000264037300006, title = {Abstractions, Ensembles, and Virtualizations Simplicity and Complexity in Agent-Based Modeling}, journal = {Comparative Politics}, volume = {41}, year = {2009}, month = {JAN}, pages = {223+}, abstract = {\ In this paper we consider the uses political scientists have made of agent-based modeling (ABM) and the challenges associated with designing research at differing levels of complexity. We propose a typology of ABM research designs-investigating abstractions, testing theories comprised of ensembles of simple variables, or implementing virtualizations of complex situations. Our illustrations are drawn from work done on problems pertaining to the evolution of collective identities and norms and to their contribution to collective action. By increasing the visibility of research design questions and clarifying the choices and opportunities associated with them, we seek to expand the scope of responsible methodological uses of ABM techniques and render the increasing variety of that work accessible to wider audiences.}, issn = {0010-4159}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233607285_Abstractions_Ensembles_and_Virtualizations_Simplicity_and_Complexity_in_Agent-Based_Modeling}, author = {Ian S. Lustick and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000262360000002, title = {Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {53}, year = {2009}, month = {FEB}, pages = {30-49}, abstract = {\ This article examines how the relationship between ethnic polarization and civil war could be moderated by different degrees of ethnic salience. Using an agent-based computational model, we analyze the polarization-conflict relationship when ethnic salience is {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}fixed{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}-high for every member of two nominally rival ethnic groups and {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}variable{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}-permitted to vary across individuals as a function of relative income. We find that (1) when salience is fixed, conflict onset is twice as high at low levels of polarization compared to when salience is permitted to vary, with the difference decreasing at high levels of polarization; (2) the relationship between conflict onset and the range over which we calculate variable salience is positive and robust for low and moderate levels of polarization; (3) the relationship between polarization and conflict onset is robust even under minority domination, if one holds salience fixed; and (4) holding ethnic salience fixed effectively amplifies the negative effect of polarization on economic performance.}, issn = {0022-0027}, doi = {10.1177/0022002708325945}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235758605_Ethnic_Polarization_Ethnic_Salience_and_Civil_War}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000271004600006, title = {The Puzzle of the Diffusion of Central-Bank Independence Reforms: Insights from an Agent-Based Simulation}, journal = {Policy Studies Journal}, volume = {37}, year = {2009}, note = {Workshop on Diffusion of Policies and Institutions, Nicosia, CANADA, 2006}, pages = {695-716}, publisher = {Amer Soc Neuroradiol}, abstract = {\ The emergence of an ever-widening sphere of global public policy is a new reality in a world characterized by the blurring of boundaries between the national and the global; by flows of ideas, people, and commodities; and by new global risks and opportunities. In this context, this article explores the empirical puzzle of the sudden outbreak of reforms leading to central-bank independence. How can we best understand the outbreak of reforms in the 1990s? It is suggested here that the reforms were diffused in a contagious and uncoordinated manner in a global policy process that may best be captured by Kingdon{\textquoteright}s policy stream model. We develop an agent-based model to evaluate the effects of three little-explored aspects of the diffusion process. These are (i) the likelihood of the outbreak of reform, (ii) the rate of adoption of the reform, and (iii) the time to outbreak. We find that the likelihood of outbreak depends on the saliency of a problem, in conjunction with the length of time that a problem has been on the public agenda. We also find that an increase in the size of the environment surveyed before a decision is made increases the rate of adoption but also the time to outbreak. The more global the information available for agents, the longer is the time to outbreak, but outbreaks unfold much faster.}, issn = {0190-292X}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227700869_The_Puzzle_of_the_Diffusion_of_CentralBank_Independence_Reforms_Insights_from_an_AgentBased_Simulation}, author = {Rapaport, Orit and Levi-Faur, David and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000265355000007, title = {REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict}, journal = {JASSS-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {11}, year = {2008}, month = {MAR}, abstract = {\ This research note provides a general introduction to REsCape: an agent-based computational framework for studying the relationship between natural resources, ethnicity, and civil war. By permitting the user to specify: (i) different resource profiles ranging from a purely agrarian economy to one based on the artisanal or industrial extraction of alluvial or kimberlite diamonds; (ii) different patterns of ethnic domination, ethnic polarization, and varying degrees of ethnic salience; as well as (iii) specific modes of play for key agents, the framework can be used to assess the effects of key variables - whether taken in isolation or in various combinations - on the onset and duration of civil war. Our objective is to make REsCape available as an open source toolkit in the future, one that can be used, modified, and refined by students and scholars of civil war.}, issn = {1460-7425}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5140523_REsCape_An_Agent-Based_Framework_for_Modeling_Resources_Ethnicity_and_Conflict}, author = {Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan and Nart, Jonas} } @article { ISI:000206799800002, title = {Cultural Differences and Economic Incentives: an Agent-Based Study of Their Impact on the Emergence of Regional Autonomy Movements}, journal = {JASSS-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {9}, year = {2006}, month = {OCT}, abstract = {\ Explanations of the emergence of regional autonomy movements - political organizations seeking to express sub-state affinities and interests - often highlight cultural differences and economic incentives as important reasons driving regional elites and local politicians to form such organization and explain the support regional autonomy movements receive. In this paper I employ a specialized agent-based computer simulation as a laboratory for {\textquoteleft}thought experiments{\textquoteright} to evaluate alternative theoretical expectations of the independent and combined consequences of regional economic and cultural circumstances on the likelihood of regional mobilization. The simulations suggest that pronounced cultural differences and strong economic incentives contribute to the emergence of three independent yet related aspects of autonomy mobilization: the emergence of political boundaries, minority support, and minority clustering. Furthermore, these experiment indicate that the impact of cultural differences on the emergence of political boundaries may be contingent on the strength of the economic incentives, and visa versa.}, issn = {1460-7425}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5140480_Cultural_Differences_and_Economic_Incentives_an_Agent-Based_Study_of_Their_Impact_on_the_Emergence_of_Regional_Autonomy_Movements}, author = {Miodownik, Dan} } @article {Miodownik200653, title = {Demarking political space: Territoriality and the ethnoregional party family}, journal = {Nationalism and Ethnic Politics}, volume = {12}, year = {2006}, note = {cited By 10}, pages = {53-82}, abstract = {In this article we revisit the notion of territoriality, suggesting that such a focus, rather than electability, increases the universe of cases available, differentiates between these and other state-wide parties, and reveals variation between ethnoregional parties competing for support in arguably the same political space. We conclude that scholars of ethnoregional politics need to apply broadly accepted understandings of the centrality of territoriality to both case-selection criteria and dimensions of "relevance" studied in order to better understand this distinct and growing political phenomenon. Copyright {\textcopyright} Taylor \& Francis Group, LLC.}, doi = {10.1080/13537110500503869}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235783165_Demarking_Political_Space_Territoriality_and_the_Ethnoregional_Party_Family}, author = {Miodownik, Dan and Cartrite, Britt} } @article { ISI:000221903700001, title = {Secessionism in multicultural states: Does sharing power prevent or encourage it?}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {98}, year = {2004}, month = {MAY}, pages = {209-229}, abstract = {\ Institutional frameworks powerfully determine the goals, violence, and trajectories of identitarian movements-including secessionist movements. However, both small-N and large-N researchers disagree on the question of whether {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}power-sharing{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} arrangements, instead of repression, are more or less likely to mitigate threats of secessionist mobilizations by disaffected, regionally concentrated minority groups. The PS-I modeling platform was used to create a virtual country {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}Beita,{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} containing within it a disaffected, partially controlled, regionally concentrated minority. Drawing on constructivist identity theory to determine behaviors by individual agents in Beita, the most popular theoretical positions on this issue were tested. Data were drawn from batches of hundreds of Beita histories produced under rigorous experimental conditions. The results lend support to sophisticated interpretations of the effects of repression vs. responsive or representative types of power-sharing. Although in the short run repression works to suppress ethnopolitical mobilization, it does not effectively reduce the threat of secession. Power-sharing can be more effective, but it also tends to encourage larger minority identitarian movements.}, issn = {0003-0554}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235783112_Secessionism_in_Multicultural_States_Does_Sharing_Power_Prevent_or_Encourage_It}, author = {Ian S. Lustick and Miodownik, Dan and Eidelson, Roy J.} } @article { ISI:000176975400002, title = {The institutionalization of identity: Micro adaptation, macro effects, and collective consequences}, journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, volume = {37}, year = {2002}, month = {SUM}, pages = {24-53}, abstract = {\ Constructivist approaches to the emergence and stability of collective identities are now widely accepted. But few of the assumptions of constructivist theory regarding repertoires of identities and their mutability in response to changing circumstances have been examined or even articulated. The article shows how different conditions of a fluid and changing environment affect the stabilization or institutionalization of an identity as dominant within a polity. We used the Agent-Based Identity-Repertoire (ABIR) model as a simulation tool and confined out, attention to relatively simple identity situations. Strong evidence was found for the emergence of identity institutionalization, the existence of a {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}crystallization{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} threshold, the effectiveness of divide-and-rule strategies for the maintenance of an identity as dominant, the efficacy of a network of organic intellectuals, and hegemonic levels of institutionalization. Thresholds leading to hegemony were not observed. Preliminary results from experiments examining more complex identity situations have been corroborative.}, issn = {0039-3606}, doi = {10.1007/BF02686260}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235783133_The_Institutionalization_of_Identity_Micro_Adaptation_Macro_Effects_and_Collective_Consequences}, author = {Ian S. Lustick and Miodownik, Dan} } @article { ISI:000170031400003, title = {Studying performance and learning with ABIR - The effects of knowledge, mobilizing agents, and predictability}, journal = {Social Science Computer Review}, volume = {19}, year = {2001}, month = {FAL}, pages = {263-280}, abstract = {\ This study uses the Agent-Based Identity Repertoire model to investigate the ability of populations to adapt and learn in an unpredictable environment. The authors{\textquoteright} findings highlight the trade-off between adaptation and diversity in the pursuit of performance but also show that this trade-off is far from straightforward Increasing sophistication improves the ability to adapt but reduces diversity, imposing high costs down the line. However, high levels of sophistication also produce small, stable homogeneous clusters of agents, which slow down declines in diversity. Innovative or entrepreneurial agents reacting more rapidly to environmental signals increase the prevalence of such clusters, helping diversity but hampering adaptability. The authors also show that more predictable environments facilitate successful adaptation, especially for populations of intermediate sophistication. Finally, the authors conclude that the trade-off between adaptation and diversity is such that in the present model, long-term learning is difficult to achieve.}, issn = {0894-4393}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237547160_Studying_Performance_and_Learning_With_ABIR_The_Effects_of_Knowledge_Mobilizing_Agents_and_Predictability}, author = {van der Veen, A. Maurits and Ian S. Lustick and Miodownik, Dan} } @article {CPLX:CPLX3, title = {Deliberative democracy and public discourse: The agent-based argument repertoire model}, journal = {Complexity}, volume = {5}, year = {2000}, pages = {13{\textendash}30}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.}, abstract = {Agent-based modeling is a technique used to study relationships between variation in parameter values or patterns of interaction at the micro-level and outcomes at the macro-level. By using computer simulation of landscapes inhabited by cells, or {\textquotedblleft}agents,{\textquotedblright} the modeler can produce many virtual histories of the landscape under different initial conditions (randomized or not) and under various experimental conditions. In this article we report the findings of experiments run with the Agent-Based Argument Repertoire (ABAR) Model{\textemdash}experiments designed to help answer some of the practical questions that arise in discussions of the contribution-enhanced public discourse, that is, more and better deliberation or argumentation among citizens might contribute to the quality of democracy.}, issn = {1099-0526}, doi = {10.1002/1099-0526(200003/04)5:4<13::AID-CPLX3>3.0.CO;2-G}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235783102_Deliberative_Democracy_and_Public_Discourse_The_Agent-Based_Argument_Repertoire_Model}, author = {Lustick, Ian S. and Miodownik, Dan} }